Winter Outlook 2025-2026 for Southeastern North Carolina and Northeastern South Carolina

For the fourth time in the last six years, La Niña is expected to be a factor in this winter's weather across North and South Carolina. 

La Niña is natural, periodic cooling of ocean water across the tropical east Pacific Ocean that brings global impacts to temperatures, rainfall, and wind.  La Niña is known during the summer and fall for its enhancement of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, but it also brings impacts to the Carolinas during the winter when it increases the potential for below normal rainfall.  La Niña is the cool (or negative) phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Although last winter experienced La Niña-like conditions, cool Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies did not last long enough for it to be classified as an official La Niña event.

Given the dry conditions already in place over most of the Carolinas, this outlook for increased chances for below normal rainfall is concerning and could lead to expanding drought this winter.

Learn more about La Niña and El Niño from the National Ocean Service...

Rainfall

Winter outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center show an increased potential for below normal precipitation totals during the 2025-2026 winter season.  Based on their latest outlook, there is an 81 percent chance that this winter's precipitation totals will be near or below normal and only a 19 percent chance they will run above normal.

A decrease in rainfall totals is the single largest impact La Niña typically brings to the eastern Carolinas during the winter.

Two of the past three La Niña winters brought below-normal rainfall across the coastal Carolinas.  A normal winter sees 9.5 to 11.0 inches of rain across the area, but local rainfall during the La Niña winters of 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 ran about 25 percent below normal leading the National Drought Monitor to declare "moderate drought" conditions in February 2022 and "abnormally dry" conditions in February 2023.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows 19 percent of South Carolina and 44 percent of North Carolina is experiencing moderate drought as of November 18.  Abnormally dry conditions cover over half of South Carolina and nearly all of North Carolina. 

This winter's Drought Outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shows drought will continue and is expected to expand across all portions of North and South Carolina this winter.

Temperatures

Unlike with precipitation, the difference in average seasonal temperature between El Niño, ENSO-neutral, and La Niña winters is not especially large.  While other factors beyond ENSO have larger local impacts on our winter temperatures, ENSO-neutral winters have a slight tendency to see warmer average temperatures, while El Niño winters can run cooler.

One of the most important weather patterns that influences our winter temperatures is called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  In its positive phase, a fast west-to-east jet stream keeps cold arctic air bottled up across Canada, and the Carolinas tend to have warm weather. 

During the negative phase of the NAO, the jet stream is free to undulate north and south, sometimes allowing cold arctic air to easily spread across the eastern United States.  Cold winter weather can result across the Carolinas during the NAO's negative phase.

Unlike El Niño and La Niño that are often predictable many months in advance, the NAO is only predictable for a couple weeks into the future and can shift phases multiple times during a single winter season.  How the NAO may impact the coming winter is not known yet.

Learn more about the North Atlantic Oscillation from Climate.gov...

An additional factor that may influence temperatures this winter concerns a large area of much warmer than normal ocean water in the North Pacific Ocean.  The "Pacific Warm Blob" extends across nearly a million square miles of the Pacific Ocean south of Alaska between 30° and 50° N latitude.  Such a large area of warm water will inject significant additional heat into the atmosphere this winter, helping build upper level heights over and downstream of the heat source.  This could help support stronger upper level ridges across Alaska this winter, a situation which could trigger cold outbreaks across the eastern United States.  This doesn't mean our entire winter will be cold - only that the frequency of outbreaks of Arctic air may be larger than normal this winter.

Snow

Snow is an uncommon occurrence across eastern North and South Carolina.  Not every winter sees measurable snow, and when it does amounts are typically small.  Major snowstorms (six or more inches of snow) haven't occurred in Wilmington or Myrtle Beach since December 1989 and since January 2000 in Florence, SC. 

Epic snowstorms where a foot or more of snow has fallen have occurred only three times in Wilmington's history:  February 17-18, 1896; February 9-11, 1973; and December 22-24, 1989.  In Florence, SC, where climate records only extend back to 1948, only the February 1973 snowstorm has produced over a foot of accumulation.

Since 1959, there have been 22 winters when La Niña conditions were present like we expect for this coming winter.  Unfortunately for snow-lovers, the majority of those winters experienced below-average snowfall across the Carolinas. In addition, the most recent 30-year period used for climate normals (1991 through 2020) has the smallest average snowfall for any time in Wilmington's climate record, only 0.9 inches per year.  This is likely related to ongoing climate change which has led to warmer temperatures.

"How does La Niña affect snowfall over North America?" from Climate.gov

Tides and Coastal Flooding

Tidal ranges are naturally larger during full moons and new moons.  The full moon on December 4 should produce water levels within a half foot of minor coastal flood thresholds at the beaches.  Any nearby low pressure system or strong onshore winds occurring in the days surrounding this full moon could easily produce coastal flooding. 

Astronomical tides throughout the remainder of the winter season are not particularly large and will remain below flood criteria.  New Moons will occur on December 19, January 18, and February 17.  Full Moons will occur on December 4, January 3, and February 1.

Coastal flooding can occur even during normal or low tides if onshore winds are strong enough.  A powerful winter Nor'easter that occurred in December 2023 produced significant coastal flooding with observed water levels of 9.97 feet MLLW at Myrtle Beach - almost 3 feet above flood stage.  This same storm system produced up to 14 inches of rain near Georgetown, SC accompanied by 50+ mph wind gusts along the beaches.

Hourly forecasts for water levels at Wrightsville Beach, Myrtle Beach, and the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington are available on the National Water Prediction Service webpage.  These forecasts are made by NWS meteorologists and include forecast storm surge and tidal anomaly factors. 

The National Ocean Service produces a Monthly High Tide Outlook that provides months of advance notice of periods when astronomical tides will be unusually high and could more easily produce coastal flooding.

Additional Links

• NWS Climate Prediction Center
• Current ENSO Status and Predictions
• Daily Climate Normals and Records for Wilmington, North Myrtle Beach, Florence, and Lumberton
• Historical snowfall for Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, Florence, and Lumberton
• U.S. Drought Monitor - Southeast

Research and Page Author: Tim Armstrong
Last Updated: November 21, 2025